Poll Finds PC Support Solid Despite Brown Allegations
Some say they are more inclined to vote Tory
Forum Research was quick to take the pulse of the province in the aftermath of the Patrick Brown allegations and resignation. Among other things, 36 per percent of those polled said the allegations will not change their vote, but 22 per cent said they’re more likely to vote Conservative now. “That the numbers for the Progressive Conservatives haven’t changed much suggests that most supporters were behind the party, and not the leader. There may be an element of cognitive dissonance in that because supporters see Brown doing the right thing and their support for the PCs is strengthened,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research.
The poll also found former leadership hopeful Christine Elliot and former Toronto councillor Doug Ford the first choices to replace Brown.
Full poll results
Most Ontarians Aware of Allegations Against Brown
Toronto, January 25th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 751 Ontario voters, more than 8 in 10 (82%) say they are aware of the sexual misconduct allegations against Patrick Brown. About one-sixth (14%) say they are not aware, while few (4%) say they do not know.
Approve of his decision to resign as leader
Almost two-thirds (60%) say they approve of Brown’s decision to resign as PC leader. One-sixth (18%) say they disapprove of his decision, and almost a quarter (22%) say they do not know. Respondents most likely to say they approve of his decision include those aged 65+ (66%), males (65%), those living in Eastern Ontario (64%) or Southwestern Ontario (63%), and supporting the Liberals (73%). Respondents most likely to disapprove include those living in Toronto (21%), in the 905 (19%), or in Northern Ontario (20%), and supporting the PCs (24%). The majority (55%) of PC supporters approve of the decision. A quarter (24%) disapprove, and a similar proportion (22%) do not know.
People’s votes may not shift
The plurality (36%) say the allegations won’t have any affect on their vote, but almost a quarter (22%) say it will make them more likely to vote PC. One-sixth (15%) say they are more likely to vote Liberal, while just over 1 in 10 (12%) say they are more likely to vote NDP, while about one-sixth (14%) say they aren’t sure if the allegations will have any effect.
Respondents most likely to say their vote won’t change include those aged 45-54 (41%) or 55-64 (38%), males (41%), living in Eastern Ontario (44%), and supporting the Green Party (50%). Additionally (35%) of PC supporters, (37%) of Liberal supporters, and (33%) of NDP supporters say their vote won’t change.
Respondents most likely to say they are more likely to vote PC include those aged 45-54 (28%), 55-64 (26%) or 65+ (29%), male (25%), living in Northern Ontario (27%) and supporting the PCs (52%). (9%) of Green supporters say they are more likely to vote PC.
Respondents most likely to say they are more likely to vote Liberal include those aged 35-44 (24%), female (18%), living in Toronto (16%), the 905 (19%), or Northern Ontario (17%), and supporting the Liberals (45%). (13%) of Green supporters say they are more likely to vote Liberal.
Respondents most likely to say they are more likely to vote NDP include those aged 34 and younger (17%), living in Toronto (416), the 905 (16%), or Northern Ontario (14%), and supporting the NDP (49%). (8%) of Liberals and (9%) of Greens say they are more likely to vote NDP.
Amongst the general-public, Christine Elliot and Doug Ford seen as first choice to succeed Brown
The plurality (41%) is unsure of who would be their first choice to lead the Ontario PCs.
Christine Elliot (12%) and Doug Ford (11%) lead amongst a group that have been identified as potential candidates for new leader. Clustered behind the two frontrunners are Toronto Mayor John Tory (8%), Caroline Mulroney (7%), Tony Clement (6%), Lisa Raitt (6%), John Baird (5%), and Lisa Macleod (4%).
Christine Elliot is preferred by PC supporters
Christine Elliot leads (17%) amongst those that say they are PC supporters. Doug Ford (13%) and Caroline Mulroney (11%) are just behind Elliot amongst PC supporters.
Overall, PC support is unchanged
If an election were held today, the PCs would receive support from more than 4 in 10 (42%), the Liberals at one-quarter (27%), and the NDP at one quarter (23%). Few (6%) would support either the Green Party or another party (2%).
Respondents most likely to say they would vote PC include those aged 45-54 (51%), males (49%), living in Eastern Ontario (44%) or the 905 (46%).
Respondents most likely to say they would vote Liberal include those aged 35-44 (34%), females (30%), and living in Toronto (36%).
Respondents most likely to say they will vote NDP include those aged 34 or younger (28%) and living in Northern Ontario (30%).